One of the pieces of advice Iâ€™ve given my youngest brother lately (who is still very early in his career) goes something like this: â€œSomeone will win the lottery tomorrow, just not you. So get to workâ€¦â€? The rationale behind this big-brother advice is that itâ€™s a mistake to look at some of the extreme examples of successes and use this as a basis for oneâ€™s own strategy. These extreme cases are by far the minority and for every success (like MySpace and Flickr) there are hundreds, if not thousands of companies that simply donâ€™t amount to much at all.
So, my advice to you, software entrepreneur, is that some company with no revenues and no discernible business model will be bought for tens of millions of dollars this year â€“ just not yours. Although thereâ€™s a chance that I could be wrong, the odds are in my favor that Iâ€™ll be right (and being right 99.9% of the time is good enough for me).
Photo by Terrie Miller.