Sure, the economy’s bad. But it’s a good time to innovate, according to Clayton M. Christensen, a Harvard Business School professor who focuses on innovation.
Prof. Christensen, tell us a little bit about what you think the effects of the financial crisis and economic downturn will be on the environment for innovation.
DR. CHRISTENSEN: I think it will have an unmitigated positive effect on innovation.
That’s counterintuitive.
DR. CHRISTENSEN: Well, it will force innovators to not waste nearly so much money.
One of the banes of successful innovation is that companies may be so committed to innovation that they will give the innovators a lot of money to spend. And, statistically, 93% of all innovations that ultimately become successful started off in the wrong direction; the probability that you’ll get it right the first time out of the gate is very low.
So, if you give people a lot of money, it gives them the privilege of pursuing the wrong strategy for a very long time. In an environment where you’ve got to push innovations out the door fast and keep the cost of innovation low, the probability that you’ll be successful is actually much higher.
How long will it take for that to take effect? Do you think we will see the fruits from the current lean period, say, five years from now, or three years from now?
DR. CHRISTENSEN: Five years from now, we’ll see some home runs have emerged. But I bet even two years from now, you’ll see a difference.
Photo by nps.gov.